Mixed Housing Data: Buyers and Sellers Navigate a Shifting Market

This week brought renewed volatility to mortgage markets due to political headlines, though those developments had limited long-term effect. Economic data offered a mixed view of the housing market, and mortgage rates ended the week slightly lower.

Existing Home Sales Slide to Slowest March Since 2009

Sales of existing homes fell 6 percent in March compared to February, missing expectations and marking the slowest March sales pace since 2009. The median price rose to 403,700 dollars, up 3 percent from a year ago and the highest ever recorded for March. National inventory levels remain limited at a 4.0 month supply, well below the six month level considered balanced. Still, inventory is 20 percent higher than one year ago.For buyers, increased inventory compared to last year may offer more opportunities, but record prices and limited supply continue to pose challenges. For sellers, strong pricing presents an advantage, though setting realistic expectations is important in a slower sales environment.

New Home Sales Gain Momentum

In contrast to the resale market, new home sales rose 7 percent in March, beating forecasts. The median price of a new home was 403,600 dollars, down 8 percent from the same time last year. The supply of new homes now sits at its highest level since 2007.For buyers, the combination of increased supply and lower pricing in the new home market could open up more affordable options. For sellers of existing homes, competition from new construction may require more strategic pricing and presentation.

Home Construction Declines Sharply

The latest home building data revealed a drop in activity. Housing starts declined 11 percent from February, with single family starts falling 14 percent to their lowest level since July 2024. Permits for new single family homes slipped slightly but held relatively steady. Meanwhile, builder sentiment unexpectedly improved, though concerns over tariffs and rising material costs remain significant.For the housing market, reduced building activity may limit new inventory in the near future, supporting prices but keeping supply tight. Buyers may face continued constraints in certain markets, while sellers could benefit from less competition among listings.

Mortgage Applications Reflect Market Uncertainty

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, refinance applications fell 20 percent this week but remained 43 percent higher than one year ago. Purchase applications dropped 7 percent from the previous week but stayed slightly above levels from the same time last year.For real estate, the decline in applications suggests that rate volatility and economic uncertainty are still influencing buyer behavior. However, the year over year improvement points to underlying demand that may grow as conditions stabilize.

What This Means for Real Estate

Housing data this week highlighted a market adjusting to rising costs, mixed demand, and uneven supply. For buyers, increased inventory and slightly lower rates offer a potential advantage, especially in the new home segment. For sellers, strong pricing continues to support value, but competition from new construction and shifting buyer expectations call for strategic positioning.

As always, staying informed about the broader market environment will help you make confident, well-timed real estate decisions.